Cespedes...or spend less

Yoennis Cespedes is officially a free agent. The much ballyhooed 26 year old Cuban defector is now currently the biggest name on the free agent market, and the Cubs are supposedly his top suitor.

My initial reaction to the idea of getting Cespedes has been negative. It just seems that most of the highly praised “mature” players who have come from other countries (and played professionally in those other countries) have never quite lived up to expectations at the Major League level.

Nothing in what I have read about Cespedes has convinced me of anything different. Cespedes’s stats in the Cuban league are close to video game levels. Last year he batted .333 with an OPS that approached 1.100. He also had 33 home runs and 99 RBI in only 90 games.

He’s a very good defender with an above average arm in the outfield. He is supposedly patient at the plate. He’s built like a fullback (could the Bears use him?) but has some pretty good speed. If you add it all together, he is the clichéd “5 tool” athlete.

So what’s the down side here? A couple of things…

First off, his experience is in the Cuban League, which most experts say is the equivalent of single-A minor league ball. So as a 25 year old, he played in single-A ball, putting him behind the development of most other minor league players. It’s difficult to say how Cespedes’s number will translate to the big leagues, but potentially he could be a .290 hitter hitting about 15 to 20 homers a season. That makes him look an awful lot like Marlon Byrd.

Second, his price, for someone that has only proven his success at a single-A level, is going to be extremely high. Two years ago, the Reds took a chance on Aroldis Chapman and paid him $30 million for 6 years. A good percentage of that is in a signing bonus, but still it is about $5 million a year. So far Chapman has been nothing more than a setup man for the Reds, though they may try to make him a starter again. His control has been a bit iffy and has started to show some injury problems. I bring up Chapman because it is assumed that Cespedes will sign for significantly more. My guess is that he might sign for 5 to 6 years at $40 to $50 million. That’s a bit frightening.

For me, I just don’t see the benefit for the Cubs to sign a player like Cespedes at the moment. It is assumed that after a brief stint in the minor leagues, he would be playing at the major league level. But at 26 years old, the Cubs will have to pay a high price to a player who technically should be reaching his prime but has never played higher than single-A ball. At the same time, Cespedes would be hitting his prime as the Cubs are in the middle of a rebuilding process. Cespedes should be a player who you are using to potentially push a team over the top to a division title or something of that sort.

While the Japanese leagues are better than the Cuban league, I look at signing Cespedes in a similar way to the signing of Kosuke Fukudome. The Cubs were coming off a division title in 2007 and looked to Fukudome to fill a hole to help maintain that success. They could afford to do that coming off a division title. The Cubs would have still been favored to win the NL Central in 2008 even if they had not signed Fukudome. Cespedes should be looked at in a similar fashion. Yes, he’s a bit younger, and a little less experienced, but he is likely to be looked at to make a contribution to the big league level in very short order.

The Cubs don’t need that right now. They are looking to develop talent. They should be looking at younger players who will spend a little more time in the minor leagues, and will be less of a financial hit than Cespedes will be. In fact, there is another Cuban defector, Jorge Soler, who is only 19 and has some of the same skills that Cespedes and will be a free agent soon as well. This might be a better alternative.

So far this offseason, the Cubs have acquired 2 types of players, mid-level veterans as place holders and younger prospects with many years of team control that they hope to develop. Cespedes really doesn’t fit under either of these categories. Soler does. Consistency would say that the Cubs would make a significant effort to sign Soler and save the money they could have spent on Cespedes to use in bolstering up player development and scouting other players. (But how the Cubs actually allocate all that money is a mystery.)

The power and overall stills that Cespedes has really is quite attractive and in years past should have made the Cubs and all of us fans drool. Things are different now and while it is a time for taking risks on prospects, paying $40 to $50 million for Cespedes doesn’t seem quite right when there are many other cheaper prospects that the Cubs could take a risk on.

Prince is a Tiger

Just a quick post...

Prince Fielder is going to sign with the Tigers.

Contract, 9 years and $214 million.

Scott Boras is a genius.

Prince in a Cubs uniform?  Not a chance.

In the end, even though this contract will become a nightmare for Tigers in about 5 years, I still think this is a great signing for them.  With the their lineup and pitching, the Tigers will likely be the favorites to win the AL Central for the next 4 years.  That gives them plenty of chances to win it all.  That will make this contract worth it.

For the Cubs, they may not have added anything significant pieces this off-season, but the subtraction of Fielder and Pujols in the NL Central is a very good thing.

So, Prince is a Tiger...

Cubs unveil revised party deck plans

Today the Cubs unveiled revised plans for the party deck in right field.

After receiving almost unanimous support for the original plans, the Cubs have now submitted an even more ambitious plan to enhance the ballpark.

"We decided that, after evaluating what other teams have done and been successful with, we will try to do our own take on those successful ideas," said Crane Kenney, Cubs president of business operations.

One of the original criticisms of the original plans for the party deck was that is appeared to be designed after the seats on top of the Green Monster at Boston's Fenway Park.  The plans unveiled today will likely amplify those thoughts:

When asked whether the new expanded plans were a direct rip off of the Boston landmark, Kenney said, "No, not in any way.  First off, all of our renovations are in right field, and everyone knows that the Green Monster in Boston is in left field."

Local Cubs fan and Wrigleyville resident, Kyle Hetherstad, was critical of the change, "You can tell that Theo Epstein has had tremendous influence over these new plans.  How are people from the 'L' tracks supposed to see into the ballpark now?  What's next?  Clam chowder with your bison dogs?"

Kenney stated, when asked about Epstein's input, "We had some discussions with Theo, but he's been more involved in Yawkey Way duplica...um...oops...I mean triangle building."

The cost of one of the new party deck tickets is targeted to be around $400 each.  "At that price, any fan will be able to afford to get some of the best seats at Wrigley."

Kenney finished the unveiling of the plans by stating that the Cubs hope to have the changes complete by opening day.  "It will really enhance the fan experience at Wrigley and we are excited to get these new seats in place."

Money to spend

It's time to look at the Cubs payroll now that they've pretty much settled contracts with most of the arbitration eligible players.

Let's first look at the players under contracts:

Alfonso Soriano	$18,000,000
Marlon Byrd	$6,500,000
Reed Johnson	$1,150,000
David DeJesus	$4,250,000
Ian Stewart	$2,237,000
Jeff Baker	$1,375,000
Blake DeWitt	$1,100,000
Geovany Soto	$4,300,000
Ryan Dempster	$14,000,000
Randy Wells	$2,705,000
Paul Maholm	$4,750,000
Carlos Marmol	$7,000,000
Kerry Wood	$3,000,000
Jeff Samardzija	$2,240,000
Chris Volstad	$2,655,000

The numbers are also in for Matt Garza and he's asking for $10.2 million with the Cubs are offering $7.95 million.  Let's just split the difference and say that Garza is getting $9.1 million.

That gives us a running total of about $84 million.  

The remaining players that will be on the 25 man roster will all be earning around the league minimum.  For now, my best guess on the remainder of the roster would be the following players:

Tony Campana

Starlin Castro

Darwin Barney

Bryan LaHair

Wellington Castillo

Travis Wood

James Russell

Casey Coleman

Marcos Mateo

That's another $4.5 million if they get $500k a piece.

That moves the Cubs up to around $89 million.

Remember, the Cubs owe $17 million to the Marlins for Carlos Zambrano too.

Now we are up to $106 million

Compared to last year where the Cubs had a payroll of $130 million or so, it would appear that the Cubs have about $25 million available to spend.  

But don't believe that this means that they will go after Prince Fielder.  Despite what some members of the press still insist on, Fielder is not in the Cubs plans for 2012.

However, that payroll disparity does mean that the Cubs could make an investment in someone like, oh, Yoenis Cespedes.  I personally don't want that Cubs to go after the 26 year old Cuban, but that is to be talked about on another day.

This is what rebuilding looks like.  And don't be surprised if that payroll number doesn't exceed $115 million in 2012.  

A new scoreboard coming to Wrigley

The biggest news to come out of the Cubs Convention this weekend was not the fact that Kerry Wood was re-signed (and never was), but the fact that the Cubs are going to be replacing the Bleacher Box seats in right field with a new patio deck and a 70 foot wide LED board.

This is quite a stunning turn of events here.

We can only deduce what this is going to actually be from the picture:

It appears, at least from the picture, that the board will contain advertisements and in-game stats.  I would guess that they could put some limited video on it too.

The patio will likely reduce the overall capacity of Wrigley by a few hundred, but should produce more revenue.  The Bleacher Box seats, which were created when the bleachers were expanded in 2006, never sold all that well.  The look of the patio has similarities to the seats that are on top of the Green Monster in Fenway Park and I'd assume the Ricketts family is hoping these seats sell as well as those Green Monster seats.

From the picture, which is obviously just a concept, it looks as if the video board will not be in play and the basket will still remain in place.  Personally, I'd like to see the basket removed and a home run have to be hit over the board itself.

The board will only be about 10 to 15 feet tall, tops, so it is going to be closer to what is already under the center field scoreboard in terms of what it can display than a true video board.

Overall, I like this development and it will be a revenue generator for the Cubs (which is why it is being done).  I'm hoping this doesn't completely extinguish talks about a full video board being put at Wrigley, but this is a step in the right direction.  The location of this board is not the best.  There will be parts of the first base side of the upper deck that will have a hard time seeing the board as well as areas of right field corner...but you are going have a tough time finding a spot inside the ballpark to put a scoreboard that can be seen by everyone.

This is also a very safe renovation to do since will have nothing to do with the mythical renovation of the main grandstand and makes for a very easy revenue increase at the ballpark.

Pretty cool.