Pitchers and Catchers report...time to start playing the blues

Not much to say...pitchers and catcher report today.  The first workout is tomorrow afternoon.

For me, and many others, baseball season has officially begun.  So, ladies and gentlemen, Steve Goodman:

The Cubs aren’t playing on the south-side in 2013…but they should in 2014

As I mentioned in my post earlier today, the rumors about the Cubs potentially playing their home game at U.S. Cellular Field in 2013 are completely baseless and just a flat out fabrication.

It’s unbelievable that a responsible news agency like this (no, I’m not posting a link to the story) could post whispers that probably were overheard at a bar in Wrigleyville.

If the Cubs were going to play outside of Wrigley Field, in 2013, a number of things would have had to happen by now. 

First off, finalized blueprints would have been released and we would have had some updated renderings.  Remember, if this were true, major work on the ballpark would be starting in about 8 months in either October or November.  Site preparation would probably already be going on.

Second, the Cubs would have felt obligated to inform season ticket holders of the potential change coming for the 2013 season…and even more importantly, the would have informed people who have been given the opportunity to purchase season tickets for the first time that they will only be at Wrigley for one season before spending a year at the Cell.  It would be smart for the Cubs to offer these people a delay in the decision until after the renovations keeping them at the top season ticket waiting list queue. 

Third, the Cubs still don’t have financing in place to pay for these renovations and no signs that significant progress has been made to secure that financing.

Fourth, the Ricketts family has not made even the slightest indication that this drastic option is on the table right now.  Of everything that Ricketts have been asked about, the idea of movie the team out of Wrigley for a year has been turned down by the Ricketts as strongly as the idea of tearing down the ballpark and building a new one somewhere else. 

Finally, the city would need to approve this renovation, and when the time comes for the major rehab to happen, you can bet it will take months of wrangling before everyone in the Wrigleyville neighborhood and the city in general will be happy with the plans to update the stadium. This quite frankly can't get done before work were to begin at the end of the 2012 season.

So with that all said, lets start getting to some hypotheticals here.  Should the Cubs consider moving out of Wrigley for a year?  Possibly in 2014?  It’s not going to happen, but I think they should consider it and actually do it.

(Warning:  Doc is going into one of his semi-annual "Wrigley Field is a dump" rants.)

Wrigley Field is a dump.  I know a number of people can’t stand it when I say that, but it’s the truth.  I’ve heard this from many people now: you can go to just about any other ballpark now and sit in the worst seats at those ballparks and those seats will still be better than the best seats at Wrigley.  It’s cramped.  It smells.  The food sucks.  And for the players, it doesn’t have the amenities that most AAA minor league parks now have. 

The idea of a patchwork approach to renovations where some larger changes happen during the off-season while minor fixes occur while the Cubs are on road trips just doesn’t seem like it would be enough. 

One plan has the Cubs have thrown out there involves digging out deep underneath the stadium to build the new clubhouse facilities.  Someone has to explain to me how that can be done in a single offseason…especially considering that it will require the Cubs to replace the field again…a task that took a number of months back after the 2007 season.  You can’t re-sod the entire field a few weeks before the season starts in a climate like Chicago. This just doesn't seem plausible right now.

Piecemeal renovations will give us updates more similar to the clubhouse renovation in 1982, the pressbox/skybox addition in 1988-1989 or the bleacher expansion in 2006.  Doing something like this is simply not big enough.  The main grandstand needs to go through a major restructuring.  In fact, some consideration should be put in to completely rebuild the upper deck, which currently contains the oldest concrete in the entire ballpark. 

Now I’m not an architect or in the construction business, so maybe there is a way to do these major renovations I'm suggesting without closing the park down for an entire year.  The Marlins played at ProPlayer/Dolphin/JoeRobbie Stadium during major renovations, as did the Royals when Kaufman when under its facelift.   The Royals and Marlins, though, never had to deal with crowds of 40,000 on a daily basis.  In fact, the Royals closed off parts of their ballpark during the season. The Cubs probably couldn't do the same.  

Of course the Red Sox played at Fenway during its decade long makeover, most almost all that work was done during the off-season.  I was at Fenway before it underwent its renovation (1996)…and I knew it was in desperate need for some work.  For most of the ‘00s, Fenway underwent a series of minor fix-ups and expansions that have now kept that ballpark viable for the foreseeable future.  Even with all this work, all the Red Sox did was make Fenway "viable".  Fenway is still cramped and missing some more modern amenities.  It's also likely to need renovations again in 10 years.  

I'd like to see the Cubs do better.  Make Wrigley comfortable for 40,000 people just like any new ballpark.   While Wrigley can "seat" 40,000, it wasn't designed to comfortably hold 40,000 on a daily basis.  Add more aisles, expand the concourses, widen the seats, add leg room and add more bathrooms.  I'd like to see it made into one of the best ballparks in baseball, in every respect, not just making it a viable Major League park.  I don't want the Cubs to have to consider having to do more massive renovations again just ten years after these renovations are complete.

It would seem to me that most of this cannot be done with a series of minor renovations.  It requires the ripping out of much of the concrete  and redesigning the overall structure of the grandstand.  Will this help the Cubs win games?  Not directly...but if last season taught us anything, it's that Cubs fans will not blindly go to Wrigley anymore.  Make the place comfortable and fan friendly for fans whether or not the team is good and whether or not the weather is cold like in April.  That adds to revenues.

Last season the Brewers out drew the Cubs while in the smallest market in baseball.  The amount that they outdrew the Cubs was only 50,000 or so...but if Major League Baseball actually published the number of people that actually came into the ballpark, the Brewers vastly outdrew the Cubs last year.  The no-shows at Wrigley last year were possibly the greatest they've ever been in the history of the franchise.  While the Cubs still get money from the ticket sales, no shows represent a loss of revenue.  Surely a team in Chicago should out do Milwaukee in both ticket sales and actual attendance almost every year regardless of performance on the field.  A major renovation of Wrigley could help achieve that.

Ideally, the Cubs would keep the bleachers and center field scoreboard, and completely gut and rebuild the rest of the ballpark.  The reality is, the main grandstand isn't what makes Wrigley the ballpark that everyone loves.  It's the ivy, the scoreboard, the brick walls, the bleachers, and perhaps the goofy neon red sign at the corner of Clark and Addison.  The rest of the ballpark could be replaced and it wouldn't make any difference.

To go to this extreme, the team would need to move out for a year...plain and simple.

As I said...this is all hypothetical.  The Ricketts family isn't interested in doing something to this extreme.  It's been said that the Tribune actually was considering doing this when they tried to sell the ballpark to the state back in 2007 and 2008.

I know this is an old argument...you can go through the CDE archives and see numerous posts where I bitch about Wrigley Field.  I can only hope that the renovations that are being planned are more massive and have a more drastic effect than I suspect they will. 

Soler Wind

Cubs rumors are flying all over the place over the last 24 hours.

The rumor most likely to have an impact on the team is the expected signing of Jorge Soler to a rather big contract…but I’ll come back to that in a second.

An interesting yet unfounded rumor circulated on the internet last night involving the renovations at Wrigley. NBC 5 reported that there may be a possibility that the Cubs are looking to possibly expand initial renovation plans and are maybe looking to find a place to possibly play their home games outside of Wrigley Field in 2013 and possibly could be preparing for the possibility of possibly playing their games at US Cellular Field.

If you didn’t notice, I don’t think there is anything grain of truth about this. In fact, the report, which I’m not even going to link, is so full of unreferenced rumors, speculation and flat out guesses that it isn’t really worth taking too seriously.

That being said, if the Ricketts family were to take such a dramatic step, I would fully support it. This would signal that a more piecemeal approach would not be an effective way of truly modernizing the ballpark. Unfortunately, the Ricketts family has never even given a hint of a possibility that this could happen.

I’ll write more about this at a later date.

The bigger, and possibly more truthful news, is that Dave van Dyke of the Tribune reported last night that the Cubs are on the verge of signing Jorge Soler and that his sources claim that the Cub are offering him a whopping 3 to 4 years at $27.5 million.

Most people are fairly convinced that van Dyke’s story is true, but reading it closely, I’m not sure that it really offers any more information that we had from previous days. Don’t get me wrong…I believe the Cubs are going in big on Soler and that they will eventually get him. The contract numbers are what are a bit mind-boggling right now. At the same time, other members of the media are starting to hint that van Dyke’s story is, in fact, correct.

While scouting reports are lacking on Soler, it is commonly accepted that this kid, who is only 19 years old, is still 2 to 3 (maybe more) years away from being ready for the big leagues. A 3 to 4 year contract would probably gain the Cubs only 1 year of Soler’s services at the big league level…but the Cubs would still have 2 to 3 years of control on him after that contract is over, so there is no reason to worry that he’d be a free agent and leave just as he’s coming into his own, if he is indeed a good player.

I’ve felt a 6 year $20 deal for the kid would be about the max the Cubs should go. According to this report, they may feel differently. They have already (and still unofficially) signed Gerardo Concepcion for $8 million. If both of these reports are true, we are seeing an interesting strategy unfolding with the Cubs right now.

With Theo on board, the Cubs were looking to start spending heavily on player development and try to spend big on the draft. In fact, the Cubs had already started to move in that direction during the 2011 draft paying pretty big dollars on players. It’s a strategy that high revenue teams use to make their draft much more effective even though they may not have any of the top draft positions. That strategy becomes much more difficult now with the new collective bargaining agreement where hard slotting will be enforced. Overpaying for players who were drafted higher than they should have been will be punished now.

So with the new CBA, it appears a new wind is blowing now and these Cuban players maybe showing us how the Cubs plan to change how they bring talent in.

International players, like Concepcion and Soler, don’t have to go through the same drafting process as American players. So instead of possibly overpaying players in the draft, which the Cubs can’t really do anymore, the Cubs are going to overpay for international players. It started with Concepcion and will also occur with Soler, assuming the Cubs do have a deal in place with him.

This really isn’t anything new. Teams have been overpaying for foreign players for years, but with the new draft rules in place, this sort of strategy is going to expand and it is a good thing the Cubs are spending money in this way. It is still cheaper than blowing money on 32 year old free agents.

Unfortunately, this strategy won’t be available to be used forever. One of Bud Selig’s remaining pet projects is to create an international draft that will likely have some of the same rules as the American amateur draft does. It will give each team an equal chance at signing these international players, and it will probably enforce a slotting system to prevent teams from overpaying.

When this happens, the Cubs will need to employ a new strategy to gain an advantage. But for now, enjoy the fact that the Cubs are overspending on these international prospects. This is a good way of building up the farm system and its still cheaper than overpaying for free agents.

Will Soler become too expensive?

With the Marlins supposedly offering Yoenis Cespedes a contract (and rumor has it they've offered him $40 million for 6 years), it might be just a matter a days before he is off the market.

When that happens, attention will the move to the other Cuban outfielder that has caught the eye of many major league teams, Jorge Soler.

I've gone on record as saying that the Cubs should focus more on signing Soler than Cespedes, which is not a unique opinion.  Many other experts and bloggers feel the same way.  We are under the assumption that Soler will be significantly cheaper, but is that really going to be true with a kid that is going to be in the minor leagues for the next 3 or more years?

Soler is only 19 years old.  More than that, though. There is no solid scouting report on the kid.  He's tall and lanky from the photos we've seen of him.  He's got a long, loopy swing according to reports from the handful of people who have actually seen the kid play.  He's got a good arm and currently has above average speed.  Almost everyone has seen Cespedes hit and we know of his insane leg strength thanks to his promotional video but there is literally no video of Soler playing.

What we do know is that most scouts see Soler as having a high ceiling.  Some argue whether or not it is as high as Cespedes, but Soler's age gives a team the opportunity to find out without spending as much money.

Many teams, and Cespedes himself, believe that Cespedes is major league ready right now or at least very near it.  As a result, a team like the Marlins or the Nationals may be looking to make the big plunge and sign the kid for as much as $50 million and using him has a way of competing immediately in their division.  Soler does not give a team that potential right now.

So we then get to the point of this post.  Who is interested in Soler and what will they pay for him?  Obviously we all believe the Cubs are very interested.  The Red Sox have expressed an interest as have the Orioles, Nationals, White Sox and even the A's.

This kid is going to have a lot of suitors...perhaps more than Cespedes has had.  If Cespedes signs before Soler (which appears likely right now), the cost to sign this 19 year old might blow up significantly...perhaps north of $20 million.

The Cubs do have $20 million to spend, but would it be worth it?  Soler is probably going to spend the better part of the next 3 years in the minor leagues, if not longer.  The Red Sox, White Sox and Orioles are all teams that potentially are willing to spend big on talent that won't be available for that many years...the Red Sox because they are always looking toward the future and the other teams because they are in major rebuilding projects like the Cubs.  In fact, the White Sox might have the biggest reason to sign Soler since their farm system is currently ranked near or at the bottom by most experts right now.

So what should the Cubs do if the price of Solor does push past $20 million?  They are rumored to have already spent $7 to $8 million on Gerardo Concepcion, who didn't have nearly the buzz that Soler does.  A number of scouts have projected Concepcion out as only a #4 or #5 starter.  Both players are the same age and it might take them both just as long to get to the big leagues.

As I said before, the Cubs do have the money.  The 2012 payroll is going to be down significantly from last year.  I felt the rumored offer to Concepcion was a bit much, but if this is the direction the Cubs are willing to take, I say that $20+ million for Soler is worth the risk.  With Brett Jackson projected as the future center fielder, adding Soler as the 2014 or 2015 left or right fielder seems like a pretty good option.

Watch for more scouting reports on Soler to be posted over the next few weeks.  As I mentioned, there isn't much solid information about him compared to what we know about Cespedes.  When those reports come out, we can better judge if the escalating price for this kid is worth the risk.

Cespedes seems to like Miami...a lot.

Yoenis Cespedes met with officials of the Miami Marlins yesterday and got a tour of their new ballpark.

At this point, he doesn't appear to have any plans to meet with the Cubs (though that can't be confirmed)...but the more interesting thing is what Cespedes told reporters yesterday.

A few weeks ago, there was a report from CBS sports that said that Cespedes did not want to play in Miami.  I said straight up that I thought this was complete BS.  It was a poor piece of reporting from CBS sports that used third hand speculation.

Cespedes has told other teams that he would prefer not to play in Miami. He plans to make his home in the Dominican, rather than in Florida, and may believe that the huge Cuban community in South Florida would add too much pressure and too many distractions.

If you've seen the promotional video for Cespedes, I think it can be assumed that distractions are probably not something he'll have too much of a problem with.  This is a kid with a ton of confidence in his abilities and appears to be an extremely hard worker.  So yesterday Cespedes said quite the opposite of that report:

"It would be good (to play here). There are a lot of Cubans and they would support me a lot. Hopefully I can play for the Marlins."

Now this is Cespedes's first recruiting visit, so it is probably too early to read a ton into this statement, but the idea that he flat out does not want to play in Miami is just wrong.  He's going to go where he can best display his talents and get the best offer.  The Marlins are likely to step up here and make a serious stab at getting this kid and with Ozzie Guillen managing the team, he'll have someone that can help mentor him and adapt to living in this country (and teach him all the nuances of Twitter).

It is still possible that this Cuban defector will go somewhere else.  He will undoubtedly get offers from several other teams and possibly even the Cubs.  It is even possible that his statements yesterday we just a ploy to get other teams to up their offers, though this seems unlikely given Cespedes's inexperience with our culture, language and media.

The idea of Cespedes coming to a frozen Wrigley Field this April just doesn't seem likely with what some of these other teams can offer.  Cespedes will be quickly thrown into a pressure cooker somewhere and he'll probably want to take some comfort in his overall surroundings and the Cubs probably can't provide that at the moment.  But the Cubs have signed 3 other Cuban players this off-season.  The difference, thought, is that that these players will not be big league ready for a number of years yet (though the Cubs might be thinking differently with Gerardo Concepcion), so they will have time to develop and adapt to life here.

Obviously, I still feel the Cubs are not a likely destination for Cespedes and (as I've said before) I'm fine with that.  And with what we saw with his first visit to a potential suitor, any other team that is interested in him might have a hard sell.

Of course, I'm not sure any player would want to play in a stadium with this thing in the outfield...


So for those of you who want to see Cespedes in a Cubs uniform, there is still hope.